Smart Calendar

The Smart Calendar lists central-bank decisions, US macro prints, mega-cap earnings, token unlocks, crypto expiries, market holidays and regulatory dates for the next weeks. Every row names its source, carries a status and a time in your zone, and opens to its values and the same day's other events. Opening it costs no credits. No model writes a date, a number, a status or an impact: dates come from official schedules and contract rules; the only estimates are marked Estimated.

Every row shows its source word in the last column and links to the source page in its drawer. A tier is kept per source: T1 is an official schedule or a contract rule, T2 a primary page that needs parsing or has licence limits, T3 a vendor used for confirmation.

One fixed rubric, applied by code:

Under "Critical + High" the Medium and Low rows of a day fold into one line that says how many there are and names the first few; "All" shows every row. Ex-dividends are never counted in the day strip or the week counts.

Your zone or UTC

The status strip names the zone in use. "show UTC" switches every clock on the page; the choice is remembered in this browser.

Known, approximate and unknown times

A clock means the minute is published and a countdown runs to it. "≈ 12:00" means the day is certain and the minute is not (the Bank of Japan announces within a window); the drawer shows the window and the countdown counts days. "time TBC", "pre-market" and "after close" mean only the day is known: no countdown, and the row sorts by its nominal time. Nothing is ever labelled "all day".

Status

Prev, Cons and Actual come from the release itself (BLS and BEA data, FRED series). Consensus appears only where a licensed survey exists; a dash with the tooltip "no licensed consensus" means none is published for that row. Surprise is actual minus consensus — never actual minus previous — shown above consensus in green and below in red. Values are rounded to the series' own decimals before anything is computed.

"Mine" is a third scope: the rows whose assets include a symbol on your watchlist. Add a symbol from the field under the controls, from "+ watch" on an agenda row, or from an event's drawer. Watchlist size by plan:

A macro print lists the majors it moves (BTC, ETH, SPY, US10Y, EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD), so watching EURUSD brings CPI and the FOMC into Mine.

Subscribing

Open any event, press Subscribe, and copy a link: Critical, Critical + High, or Mine (Starter and above). In Apple Calendar: File → New Calendar Subscription. In Google Calendar: Other calendars → From URL. Feeds cover the next 90 days and are rebuilt every six hours. Apple Calendar honours that interval; Google Calendar refreshes a subscribed feed every 12–24 hours.

Keeping the links private

Anyone with a link can read that feed. Rotate the links if one leaks; the old ones stop working at once. The links are shown when they are issued; the platform keeps only a hash, so an earlier link cannot be shown again — rotate to get new ones.

What a feed holds

Events from yesterday to 90 days ahead, except hidden and cancelled rows. Each event carries the same key as the page (UID), its status and values in the description, and a link back to its drawer. A moved event keeps its UID and raises its sequence, so your calendar moves it instead of duplicating it. Times are UTC; your calendar shows them in your zone. Date-only rows (earnings without a set time, unlocks, elections) are all-day entries that say why in the description.

One event

"Add to my calendar (.ics)" in the drawer saves a single event the same way.

What is measured

For CPI, nonfarm payrolls, PPI, GDP (advance estimate only), PCE, retail sales and FOMC decisions, the move of eight assets after the release: BTC, ETH and SOL on Binance spot (5-minute bars); SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD and EURUSD on Massive (5-minute bars). The anchor is the published release minute converted to UTC for that day (daylight-saving aware); the reference price P0 is the open of the 5-minute bar that starts at the anchor. Returns are close-to-P0 at +5 min, +15 min, +1 h, +4 h and +24 h; the first hour also carries the largest move up and down from P0 and the realised volatility against the prior 24 hours.

Sample

The last 24 releases that have bars on the venue, with n shown per asset and per window: a release on a Friday has no +24 h bar on SPY or EURUSD, a print before 09:30 ET is a pre-market move on stocks and is labelled so, and an asset that was not trading at the time is left out of that release rather than guessed. Release dates come from FRED's release-date history and the Fed's own calendar; the October 2025 CPI, which was never published, is not an occurrence.

What the figures are not

A median absolute move and a count of closes above the reference are past moves, not a forecast. Nothing in them says which way a market will go after the next print; the strip shows each occurrence so you can see the dispersion for yourself. Statistics are recomputed nightly at 01:00 UTC.

For the next FOMC decisions the band and the drawer show the prices of the Fed-decision markets on Polymarket and Kalshi: each venue's own outcome set (50+ bp cut, 25 bp cut, hold, 25 bp hike, 50+ bp hike), the Yes price normalised to sum 1 per venue, and the average over the venues for the headline figure. Prices are refreshed every 5 minutes and kept for an hour if a venue does not answer; a Kalshi quote with an empty or very wide book (a spread over 10 cents) counts at its last trade, or not at all. Starter and above also see the 7-day Polymarket Yes price (not normalised) of the outcome the headline names.

Market pages: Polymarket (polymarket.com) and Kalshi (kalshi.com).

The status strip shows the time of the last build and how many sources answered; a source that failed is named in Method.

• This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• Unlock data: DefiLlama.
• Corporate actions and ticker profiles: Massive (market data).
• Market-implied odds: Polymarket · Kalshi — market-implied, not CME FedWatch.
• Reaction statistics: Binance spot klines (crypto) and Massive 5-minute aggregates (stocks, ETFs, forex).
• S&P 500 constituent list: datasets/s-and-p-500-companies (PDDL); Wikipedia as a fallback for tickers only (CC BY-SA).
• Ethereum upgrade dates: forkcast (projected dates are forkcast’s working estimate, shown as Estimated).
• Bitcoin block height and difficulty: mempool.space, with blockchain.info as the fallback.

Earnings dates and estimates come from the configured earnings provider; the owner can switch or disable it without a deploy. An adapter for a second earnings vendor (EODHD) exists against the vendor's published fields and has not been exercised live; the owner enables it with EARNINGS_PROVIDER=eodhd, and its redistribution terms are listed as unread until then. Deribit is read for dates only; no Deribit market data is shown. Terms we could not read or have not yet reviewed are listed here rather than claimed: Binance klines and announcements, mempool.space, forkcast's licence for commercial display, the display terms of Kalshi and Polymarket, and Massive's business terms.

• No forecasts. A date, a value and a countdown are facts about a schedule; nothing on the page says what a market will do.
• No consensus where none is licensed.
• No exhaustive list. Micro-cap earnings, every ex-dividend and every small unlock are left out on purpose.
• No model-written dates.
• No forecasts from statistics or odds. Reaction figures are past moves; odds are other people's prices.
• No feed is a signal. A subscribed calendar repeats the schedule and nothing else.